2013 NFL Draft Prospect Preview

Hours after the 2012 NFL draft concluded, many major media websites, outlets and football bloggers were already listing their first-round mock projections for the 2013 draft – which I got a kick out of. The smoke had not even cleared from the 2012 draft; players had not even arrived in their new NFL cities. Yet, the 2013 first-round NFL mock drafts were up, complete with round-by-round projections.

These lists and mock drafts are based on what, exactly? Future online data sales, web hits, player statistics and All-American or all-conference honors? Career production? With all due respect to the various approaches taken by others, I think it is more important that you take your time and get it right. To achieve this, you must gather all the information needed, which starts with studying a player’s DNA (film). Go back at least two years, so that when the 2013 season ends and the film study begins, one will have three years of a player’s DNA with which to form evaluations.

After the traditional bowl games (Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Sun, etc.) and end-of-January showcase exhibitions (East-West Shrine Game, Senior Bowl and many others) are in the books, I begin stacking the players, vertically, by position. Once finished with that, I compare them horizontally for final grade purposes. Unlike what is found on other websites, I find it hard to give a round projection based on past performances; with a full season in front of the prospects, marks can and should change, for better or for worse. I want my final grade to reflect the player’s complete DNA, and to be loaded on April 1, 2013.

As a former NFL personnel executive, I pride myself on watching film to evaluate a player’s DNA. With that said, I have completed the 2011 and 2012 film evaluations. I have a list, detailing who I believe are the top 50 players as of now, below. I don’t attach a round grade to the prospects, but rather a color grade that corresponds with a round range based on skill set, positional attributes, production, upside and leadership. Here are my top 50 prospects for the 2013 NFL draft and the explanation chart used to stack players in a color range. Their final DNA will separate into rounds much later in the process.

*bold denotes underclassman

BLUE – Blue players are playmakers and difference-makers in every game. Playoff teams need at least 10 or more on the roster.

RED – Starters/heavy contributors with whom you can win right away; they have Blue traits with ascending skill sets.

ORANGE – Backup/special teams players with limited production. They struggle to match up with high Red players and have limited skill sets.

GREEN – A high percentage of free-agent “greenies” get hurt and lack the skill sets to ascend to Orange.

Coming soon: the top 300 players, stacked alphabetically by position, with both seniors and projected underclassmen that are likely to declare for the 2013 NFL draft.